Expiration of the New START Treaty: A Turning Point in U.S.–Russia Nuclear Arms Control

On 5 February 2026, the New START Treaty-the last remaining bilateral agreement limiting strategic nuclear weapons between the United States and Russia-officially expired. This moment marks a significant milestone in global security, as New START had, for more than a decade, served as the cornerstone of verifiable nuclear arms control between the world’s two largest nuclear-armed states. Signed 08-April-2010 and entering into force on 5-February-2011, the New START Treaty imposed clear numerical limits on deployed strategic nuclear forces. Each side was restricted to 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads, 700 deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and heavy bombers, with an additional cap of 800 total deployed and non-deployed launchers. Beyond these limits, the treaty established an extensive verification regime, including on-site inspections, data exchanges, and notifications, which collectively enhanced transparency and predictability. Over its lifetime, New START facilitated thousands of notifications and dozens of inspections, reducing the risk of miscalculation and reinforcing strategic stability during periods of political tension. The treaty was originally set to expire in 2021 but was extended for five years-the maximum allowed under its provisions-making February 2026 its final endpoint. Its expiration leaves, for the first time since the early 1970s, no active, binding arms control agreement governing the strategic nuclear arsenals of the United States and Russia. This development carries global implications, as together the two countries possess over 85% of the world’s nuclear warheads, according to publicly available international security estimates. The end of New START removes legally binding limits and on-site verification measures, increasing uncertainty in an already complex international security environment. #ArmsControl #NuclearWeapons #GlobalSecurity #UnitedStates #Russia #ColdWarLegacy